Category Archives: Journal of Arts on Space-Time Composition and Enterprise_english

Quantitative Evaluation of Medical Collapse based on COVID-19 Lethality

Ken ITO
The University of Tokyo

Submitted 23 Apr 2020, Revised version accepted 4 May 2020

Global lethality of COVID-19, calculated as the ratio of total infected cases and total deaths,
increases from 4.69% in mid-March to 9.07% in mid-April, almost two times as large within
one month.
Usually in epidemiology, lethality is regarded as pathogen-specific constant value and in most
case this holds generally. However, COVID-19 is new corona virus and antibody therapy is
not yet established (Apr. 2020). At least one more year is expected to establish vaccine, and
to spread it globally. In such condition, clinical lethality has much relation to local medical
care in quality and quantity. Lethality could be interpreted as an indicator of regional
medical collapse and medical reestablishment. In advanced countries, medical collapse is
discussed in relation to the number of surplus hospital beds or respirators. However, in regard
to further spread of pandemic to developing countries and post-conflict areas, we should
define different phenomenological parameter to evaluate the degree of regional medical
collapse quantitatively.
The author defined “lethal velocity” from daily difference ratio of cases and that of deaths.
Using this lethal velocity, we analyze pandemic in different countries and regions. Further
correlation function analysis between pandemic and social, economic and medical disparity
are in preparation.

General Perspective for the “Beyond-COVID” Global Society and Economical Order — An introduction, as a proposal to the “Ethics, AI and COVID” Consortium

Ken ITO, Mitsuharu ISHIKAWA and Max Tomoki YATSUZUKA
The University of Tokyo

Submitted 20 Apr 2020

Pandemic by COVID-19 could give an impact to change basic structure of Neo-Liberal Economy and Financial system, which had grown after the end of the cold war, up to the second decade of 21st century. 

Looking back to the “Spanish Flu” 1918 Pandemic, which had an impact to stop the first world war, various post war changes — from revolution to innovation — occurred and in the meanwhile, John Maynard Keynes had established the concept of “Pubic Investment”.  After the Great Depression and the start of New Deals, he published “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”[1] in 1936. 

We also evaluate fundamental Poverty Studies by Amartya Sen[2] quite meaningful in the analysis of Beyond COVID Global Society and Economical Systems. 

Concerning Keynes’ thoughts, his view point shown during late 20’s and 30’s had clearly anticipated “Beyond Depression” and even “Beyond the Second World War” global economic order. Though his plan was not fully taken at the Breton Woods Conference and the IMF system after the second world war, his fundamental criticism on Gold standard finally led management currency system after the 1970’s. Digital Economy after that totally stands on his “Beyond Gold Standard” viewpoint. 

And concerning Sen’s thoughts, before his study, “Poverty” had been treated mostly from the view point of productivity and little fundamental counter measure had enforced.   

Most of present pandemic models do not consider economic, social and even educational viewpoints. Indeed, in UK, Prince and PM had been infected by the virus. But we shall pay much attention to the different curvature of infected population between New York city and far eastern countries. 

At the background of this disagreement, we must find unlikeness of public insurance system, social custom or even variance in education. 

COVID Pandemic started in China, then first in far eastern countries we observed a loca a peak. Then after the middle of March 2020 the center of Pandemic clearly moved to Europe and now, at the beginning of April, an rapid wave is growing in US.  

We have to regard the difference between the European, American and Far-Eastern socialways of lives “ARTIFACTS” in the wide spread of the pathogen, and by changing such artifacts, we can expect relaxation in the curvature of pandemic. 

Fundamental subjugation of COVID would clearly accomplished with the establishment of Antibody therapy; it is in principle POSSIBLE. The problem is that it takes AT LEAST 1 year, or longer time and during that period various catastrophe could be concerned. Before that we have no optimistic view for the convergence of COVID pandemic. 

Now from academic stand point we can propose TWO different kinds of counter measures. The first is “Research for Today” or “Symptomatic” studies and the second is “Research for Tomorrow” or “Long-term Preventive Sustainable Studies”. 

For the Symptomatic studies, as they have awful variety, we would like to discuss them in different occasion. 

For Long-term Preventive Sustainable Studies, we would remark 3 initial problematics. 

1 The mechanism of “Medical Collapse”, Proof studies and mathematical theoretical approaches.

2 Possible Crustal Deformation of Society and Economy caused by COVID, Proof studies and welfare economic studies, especially possible correlation of inequality correction and pandemic relaxation. 

3 Transport Revolution; Mobility, Ubiquitous technology, Autonomous mechanics including self-driving technology, almost all kinds of IoT technology would be fully utilized DURING COVID term from 2020 to 2022-2023 and BEYOND COVID global society could be considerably influenced with those.

It could also transform the whole society, economy and global finance.
The academic sector MUST show NAUTICAL CHART and FUTURE IMAGE for the creation of the next generation INDUSTRY and PROSPERITY BEYOND COVID changes.

We shall show the IDEAL after the PANDEMIC. Just like Keynes in 1920’s who drew first rough image of modern global economy BEYOND GOLD STANDARD, we in 2020’s would sketch the first MACRO BEYOND COVID. 

We would publish individual studies systematically along this basic ground route. 

References
[1] Keynes, John Maynard The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Harcourt, Brace & Company, New York (1936)
[2] Sen, Amartya. Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. Oxford New York: Clarendon Press Oxford University Press. (1982)

Public Principal towards Global Industry-Academia Coalition against COVID”

Ken ITO and Kan Hiroshi SUZUKI
The University of Tokyo

To begin with, for the global leading universities’ alliance against COVID, we would like to quote a “warning” by an English Pubic / Welfare Economist, Anthony Bernes “Tony” Atkinson[1].

Especially after the shocking “Google Cat“ [2], the rapid development of AI, and the wide spread of machine learning, are apparently towed by GLOBAL GIANT COMPANIES, not by us, leading universities.

Private companies are destined to maximize their shareholders return. Atkinson had clearly pointed out INEVITABLE TENDENCY of COMPANY-BASED INNOVATION for the PROFIT of INVESTORS. He called this bias “SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM”

Japanese mathematical economist Hirohumi UZAWA(1928-2014) [3] and Katz IWAI(1948-)[4]  have also pointed out strong influence on IT / AI INNOVATION, in general, by GIANTS COMPANIES, such as “GAFA”.

Counter measures against COVID-19, and the AI application upon them, are the most typical examples which should NEVER be BIASED by PRIVATE INTEREST.

In deed we the Japanese academic sectors had experienced such “PUBLIC” requirement in the year 2011, at “THE FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR DISASTER.

We had invited Dr. Prof. Amartya SEN to Tokyo and discussed the IMPORTANCE of THROUGHOUT “PUBLIC” — not “private”, “profit-motivated” — POLICY MAKING against the RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION.

With regard to COVID, from the view point of leading university, we should ALSO keep THROUGHOUT “PUBLIC” POLICY MAKING against the plague.

Quite unfortunately, this PANDEMIC can also cause serious “CORONA DEPRESSION”. Now we should remember the original idea of J. M. Keynes’[5]  during THE GREAT DEPRESSION “PUBLIC INVESTMENT” — governmental investment without any profit motivation — : we shall apply this PUBLIC idea to the ACADEMIC / INDUSTRY-ACADEMIA ALLIANCE and COUNTER MEASURES against COVID.

ALLIANCE with GIANT AI COMPANIES —GAFA and more — IS, OF COURSE, VERY IMPORTANT in the whole INDUSTRY-ACADEMIA COALITION against COVID.

However, THE MOST IMPORTANT is to keep the “PUBLIC” STANDARDS, and WE the LEADING UNIVERSITIES should keep GLOBAL PUBLIC ETHICAL PRINCIPLES in the collaboration with COMPANIES.

UNIVERSITIES should be THE GUARANTOR for the PUBLIC WELFARE.

To keep the counter operation “PUBLIC” — with the meaning of J. M. Keynes — , we THE GLOBAL LEADING UNIVERSITIES should play proper role TO KEEP HIGHEST ETHICAL STANDARD for the COMMON FUTURE of the humankinds.

So we propose INDUSTRIE-ACADEMIA COALITION against COVID : leading universities should CREATE A TIGHT BOND, and COOPERATE WITH global leading GIGANTIC AI COMPANIES to get rid of this crisis at the HIGHEST STANDARDS of SCIENCES and ETHICS, for the TRUE REALIZATION of GLOBAL PUBLIC WELFARE of ALL HUMANKINDS BEYOND COVID.

Reference
[1] See Atkinson, A. B. and  Stiglitz, J. E. Lectures on public economics. London New York: McGraw-Hill Book Co (1980)
[2] Quoc V. Le et al. Building High-level Features Using Large Scale Insupervised Leaning,https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/ja//archive/unsupervised_icml2012.pdf
[3] Uzawa H. Economic Analysis of Social Common Capital, (Cambridge University Press, (2005).[4] In Japanese, Katsuhito Iwai et al  “Capitalism and Ethics” Toyo-Keizai (2019) ISBN-10: 4492961585
[5] Keynes, John Maynard The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, Harcourt, Brace & Company, New York (1936)

Facebook “Libra” changes: A Structural Shift in the Business Model — A step towards possible “Public Capitalism”

Kyôske TOMONARI,  Tomoki YATSUZUKA, Kan Hiroshi SUZUKI* & Ken ITO

Submitted 25 Jan  2020

The Facebook’s Libra White Paper[1] was first released on 18th June 2019 and its business model was altered in October 2019. The House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services requested public testimony from Mark ZUCKERBERG, the Facebook CEO, regarding the Libra project on 23th October 2019[2][3]. Around the same time, the dividend payment system was removed from the Libra proposal but the change was not widely known until December 2019. We support the business model alteration as it advances its attribute of the public good and reduces its profit-making attribute.

A New Peer-to-Peer Double Entry Settlement Network based on Encrypted Asset (1)

Kyôske TOMONARI,  Tomoki YATSUZUKA, Kan Hiroshi SUZUKI* & Ken ITO

Submitted 1 July  2019, Revised version accepted, 13 January 2020

Encrypted assets, based on the Blockchain technology such as Bitcoin, have expanded rapidly. In this paper, we systematically redesign the encrypted asset and propose a theoretical framework using double entry bookkeeping methodology. The Blockchain technology can be viewed as an incomplete application of the ledger system, that is single entry bookkeeping. The ledger is shared by all Bitcoin users in the peer-to-peer network and it enables the system to settle payments. In order to ensure an appropriate accounting practice in the system, the ledger and other accounting information needs to be recorded and organized by using double entry bookkeeping to facilitate a true audit process.
The Blockchain technology was proposed as a peer-to-peer network system without center of trust. However, Bitcoin users have pursued their own profit and changed Bitcoin’s quality, from a currency to a speculative investment. In order to overcome this difficulty, Facebook and its cooperative companies proposed a new reserve currency, “Libra” ; a type of stable coin or sovereign coin, which is convertible to legal currencies. However, Libra’s management entity, the Libra Association, is composed of commercial enterprises and it is impossible to prevent the association from pursuing profit-motivated activities. Therefore, the association would hardly deliver a fair and impartial monetary policy to maintain a stable Libra system.
We propose a peer-to-peer network composed only of central banks, which impartially maintain the stability of the financial system without profit motivations. For such a network, we are developing a new Blockchain system, “NAKASO-IWAI’s Post Blockchain systems”. In this article, we will outline the fundamentals of this system. Further details will be published in future articles.